Politics have always been known as a dirty game. But dirt is obvious, hence the term gutter politics. Shadow politics is more interesting, where all the machinizations take place away from public eye. First, a disclaimer. I am neither a political science student nor really involved in the political scene, I just love to read a lot and put my overactive imagination to writing stories. Election time usually spurs my ideas towards the political genre though, and I am just theorizing of potential strategies that the PAP or the Opposition can use to swing the votes heavily in their favour, or give themselves a big advantage. These may sound like plots from some Jeffrey Archer novel, but then again thats the whole point :)
How PAP can swing the Election in their Favour:
For them to do that, other than reducing discontent, they must eliminate their second strongest threat, that of the viable opposition given by the fielding of strong candidates. This year we are seeing some strong new faces, and therein lies the potential weakness. The advantages of these new candidates have already been mentioned much, but so has the pitfalls, mainly the uncertainty over their dedication.
What happens if one of these new opposition faces pulls out at the last minute before polling day?
In one swift, stroke the confidence in all the new opposition faces would be shaken, especially if this was one of the big names being mentioned. Unlike PAP's new faces who were "groomed and selected", these new aspirants were independently motivated to run, and all apparently in the last minute fashion. Of course, there might be many reasons to cause a candidate to pull out, but I'll group it simply to coercion, pressure, self-realization, conflict of interest with party direction, and the mole theory. But I'll only do an analysis of the mole theory, where an opposition candidate has been sent in as a by the PAP, and in this case, I'll just list the 4 most prominent names among yhe new faces.
WP's Chen Show Mao. He may seem like their greatest catch and appears really sincere and enthusiastic, but consider this, he has almost nothing to lose if he pulls out. He still has a stable job overseas to go back to, his family are not here. He faces no local stigma or backlash if he goes back overseas, in fact its a plus point to his employers showing his dedication to his job over his political aspirations.
SDP's DR Ang Yong Guan. Maybe just the fact that he is in SDP despite his obvious qualifications is enough to ring a bell, as he could have aimed for a more credible party. There's always been conspiracy theories about SDP, that Dr Chee was supposedly paid to make the opposition look bad (i.e. how he can still fly around despite technically being bankrupt), and James Gomez (okay there are some really absentminded people out there, but for a "smart" political candidate to make a similar/related mistake 2 times in a row....)
SDP's Tan Jee Say. Granted he sounds credibly sincere, but if he was really that close to Goh Chok Tong (and the PAP) there is a possibility that he still is. Most unlikely of the four mentioned here though, as the link to PAP is too obvious and pointed out as a ploy.
NSP's Nicole Seah. She's only 24, and may just state the need for time to study the political scene longer so that she can be at her most useful knowledge and experience wise when she chooses to run a later date. A weak excuse, but still a worthy anD valid one. Or attribute the change of heart to the fickleness of youth.
In either case, there can be many possible reasons for even ONE new face to pull out at the last minute, the damage would have been done. One of the wards would be short of one campaigner (maybe leading to an outright walkover, unless they had a backup), and any contests which includes a new face would be burdened by the uncertainty of commitment. The recent abandonment of Tanjong Pagar by the SDA already shows signs of it, as one of the reasons given was a sudden lack of manpower resource. A masterstroke indeed. But please don't automatically assume that if a withdrawal does happen, that it means the mole theory is true. Again I reiterate that I am not discrediting any of the candidates, this articles is about possibilities, not probabilities, its just a possible scenario that I have thought about as the conditions allow for it.
How the opposition swing the Election in their Favour:
The opposition parties have not portrayed as one big threat to the PAP, having the numbers, but are not united. A while back it was stated that even if the opposition wins all the wards they contest in, any opposition party individually still not be big enough of a majority to overtake the PAP's percentage. Of course this has changed as it was later announced that all wards may be contested (thought even later on SDA pulled out plus there could be a repeat of forms not being properly submitted means its not the case). As WPalso mentioned, they are not ready to take over yet.
What if all the opposition parties unite as one and PAP does not have the time to respond?
Imagine the situation of the day the forms for the candidate were submitted. The PAP is worried about losing seats yet confident that they will remain the ruling party. Complacency has set (further?) in. Then it is realised that all the candidates from the different opposition party were running under one single party. Since the law require the party to register before hand it would have to be under one of the existing parties. (Would be more intriguing if a whole new unknown appears, maybe the People's Coalition Party. Perhaps when I turn it into a full fledge story I can "tweak" the laws a bit). All the A-listers from the different parties are now a united force to be reckoned with. A brand new party manifesto appears, an amalgamation of all the best ideas from the different manifestos. On top of that, the previously unveiled manifestos were "purposely" weak in different areas but strong in others to purposely mislead the PAP into thinking that non of the opposition's individual manifestos are credible on the whole on its own.
This would be a complicated operation though, with many obstacles and possible pitfalls.
There needs to be a strong personality in charge. A unifying figure with enough charisma and commanding presence to convince and rally all the opposition parties under him/her. This person may already be in the limelight, but may not shown political aspirations, or maybe some other criteria exists that lets this person not be viewed as a credible threat and slip under the PAP's radar. (Again, would be interesting if it turns out to be an existing PAP member).
The plan must be executed in secrecy though, which means that only the top level, maybe just the chairman of the individual opposition parties are in the know. To fool the enemy, one must first fool your own people. Again, these individual chairmen must themselves have charisma and the respect of the party members so that even in the event of this announcement (no one else in the party knows about this covert operation) they will still remain loyal to the party as everyone is needed to run.
It would also be easier to have existing members than suddenly unveil new faces as that would be too great of a shock to the public. Again, timing is an issue. The individual party members must be informed ahead of time so that they do not show TOO much surprise at the turn of events, as this negative image of apparent chaos can be played up strongly.
Another possible problem is the displeasure felt by the voters for being fooled as well. This is where the strong personalities and charismas of the leaders come in, as well as how much more discontented the people are to overlook this need to be so covert. This would be the second greatest hindrance to the plan.
One major possible problem is the restructuring that will occur (i.e. there is now only one vice-chairman for one party). Those who were "demoted" may be disgruntled and pull out in protest. Its up to the individual leaders to identify these people and deal with them accordingly (either let them into the circle, mark them - especially the controversial ones - as expendable, or know that they will accept the decision for the greater good etc).
This ploy can also only be used once, for obvious reasons. Therefore the opposition party must time this trick to be used when it has the highest possibility of succeeding, all factors considered.
However, consider the possible results:. In one blitz, the PAP is now faced with one singular opposition that poses a credible threat to their retaining majority control over the parliment seats, without a proper strategy to deal with it. After all, their strategies up to that point have been to deal with the different parties, not one united one. In this case, the new united opposition party would have the advantage as they would have prepared for the publicity and questions that would ensue with the announcement. Unless the PAP already has a comprehensive back-up plan (no doubt they have foreseen the possibility) and all their MPs have been prepped to can are capable of dealing with this new scenario, they are at a severe disadvantage.
Now how to turn it into an interesting FICTIONAL novel....
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